Every week during the regular season Tim Twentyman will answer questions from his X account @ttwentyman for a Lions Mailbag.
Twentyman: There's a lot of ways I can answer this question. Better execution on both sides of the football and winning the turnover battle is key, but I'm going to get a little more specific. If the Lions win third down on both sides of the ball, they have a great chance of winning Sunday.
The Lions' offense ranks just 18th on third down, converting 37.5 percent of the time. That's down significantly to begin the year from where the team ended last season at 62.5 percent (eighth). This is too good of an offense to convert at that low of a rate. It's been an issue early in games, and that's led to some three-and-outs and slow starts.
The Lions face a very good Jets defense Sunday that's allowed less than 200 yards of total offense to their first two opponents in Tennessee and Green Bay. They come in ranked second in third-down defense at 23.8 percent. It should be a good battle between these two on every third down. It's important for Detroit to have third and manageable against this defense.
Detroit's six three-and-outs in two games are the seventh-most in the league and have attributed to the slow starts. The Jets have forced a three-and-out on 42.9 percent of opponent possessions (best in NFL).
Defensively, getting off the field has also been an issue for the Lions on third down. They rank 30th as opponents convert 58.6 percent. They ended last season top 10 in the NFL on third down at 36.9 percent. This could be a week Detroit's defense gets right on third down, as the Jets' offense is converting just 32.3 percent of the time (25th).
Twentyman: Not at all. I've been doing this long enough to know that the first month of the season is really an extension of training camp. The brand of football we see in September vs. November and December is so different.
Do I still want to see this Lions team play better in all three phases? Absolutely.
But that's a Saints team I think will be much better than people think and has a chance to win the NFC South. The Bills were my favorites to win the AFC heading into the season. That was a tough matchup on a short week at their new place.
I think these next three weeks will tell us a lot about this football team with games vs. the Jets and at the Panthers and Cardinals. If they clean up some of these issues, particularly limiting the explosive plays on defense, the angst surrounding the Lions and their start will ease.
I remember back in 2023 when they lost to Seattle Week 2 and then went to Baltimore a few weeks later and got blown out by the Ravens. The questions surfaced if this team could compete atop the NFC. Detroit ended the season in the NFC Championship Game. Take the first month or so of the season with a grain of salt.
Twentyman: Head coach Dan Campbell, defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, all the defensive coaches and the players spent Monday doing a deep dive on their performance over the first two weeks.
Coaches identified 23 explosive plays allowed by the defense the first two weeks. After that meeting, they came to the conclusion that 75 percent of those were self-induced, per Sheppard. So why is it happening? They went down the list and showed all 23.
"Let's let them talk because right now guys, there's a gap. There's a clear gap from meetings and practice, what's taking place at 222 Republic and then gameday," Sheppard said.
How does Detroit close the gap? I get the sense it will be players taking personal responsibility and cleaning up their own play vs. scheme change. Maybe we see personnel changes here or there. They blitz at a high rate, so maybe they ease up on that a little bit especially on second and third down, but I don't think the scheme looks drastically different.
"If that's pulling back, if that's whatever we need to do, how can I help you?" Sheppard said Thursday. "And it starts with me, guys. That's all the message was this week."
Twentyman: It's been part of their NASCAR package for a few years now but hasn't been put into action much the first two weeks. Some of that is the opponent and the quarterback on the other side of the line of scrimmage.
Aidan Hutchinson is one of the best in the business along the edge. You want him in space against a tackle. That's advantage Hutchinson in most cases. Once you move him inside it's easier to double him and scheme against him. He is currently second in the NFL in total pressures at 16 through two games. He trails only Minnesota's Dallas Turner (20). On the outside attacking the edges is where Hutchinson is most effective.
Twentyman: Campbell talked this week about giving more players a chance to show what they can do. I wonder if Ahmed Hassanein is among those players? The problem he faces is simply a numbers game on the edge. He's behind Hutchinson, DJ Wonnum, Tyler Lacy, Derrick Moore and Eric O'Neill at this point. O'Neill's play on special teams is a big obstacle for Hassanein getting on the field.
Twentyman: I don't believe offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is in the business of forcing the football to a particular player, especially with the plethora of skill weapons at his disposal. I know for certain quarterback Jared Goff isn't in that business, as he said as much Wednesday when we talked to him. He's throwing to the open player and if that's within his first two progressions, that's typically who's getting the football.
Here's what Petzing said Thursday when specifically asked about Jameson Williams.
"Just speaking to Jamo, sometimes we've had his number called and we get the wrong look, or we aren't able to get the ball to him. Other times he's been able to make some big plays for us, which has been great," Petzing said.
"So, it's not something I'm concerned about because of really the nature of the personalities in that room. I think they play so hard regardless that when their number is called, I know they're going to be ready to make the play."
Obviously, Williams has big-play potential every time he touches the football. Petzing knows that and will continue to scheme up those opportunities. Then it's up to Williams to make the most of those opportunities.
