Mock Draft: Free Agency Effect is my third mock draft this year and by far the most challenging of any other I can recall.
Trades, free-agent signings and the impact of record-setting contracts have forced changes in projections on a daily basis -- and sometimes hourly.
One thing has remained constant. The Detroit Lions are in a good position with two first-round picks -- second and 32nd overall.
This draft has depth in areas where the Lions need help -- defensive line and wide receiver specifically --to continue the rebuild undertaken by head coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes.
Following are the first-round projections for my third mock draft. Trades are not allowed.
As always, feel free to disagree.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-14:
Status: Going heavy on OL in free agency shows the Jags are switching to defense for No. 1 pick.
Pick: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan.
Mock 1-2 Picks: OT Evan Neal, Alabama.
2. Detroit Lions, 3-13-1:
Status: Hutchinson going No. 1 could open good opportunities for the Lions to trade down. Impact for defense is the priority, wherever they pick.
Pick: Safety Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame. Size (6-4, 220), athleticism and instincts have him rated high.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Hutchinson, Hamilton.
3. Houston Texans, 4-13:
Status: Trading QB Deshaun Watson to Cleveland brings closure, adds draft capital.
Pick: OT Ikem Ekwonu, North Carolina State. Combine performance elevated him.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Hutchinson, edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon.
4. New York Jets, 4-13:
Status: Jets' two high first-round picks building blocks.
Pick: CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, Cincinnati. He moved to the top of his position.
Mock 1-2 Picks: CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU.
5. New York Giants, 4-13:
Status: Draft shuffle ahead of them doesn't change their needs. And they still get a quality player.
Pick: Edge rusher Travon Walker, Georgia.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Ekwonu.
6. Carolina Panthers, 5-12:
Status: There's been more talk than action about them dealing to fill QB need. A QB will be over drafted by Carolina because of need.
Pick: QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh. Closed out his career with a big 2021 season -- 42 TD passes vs. seven picks.
Mock 1-2 Picks: OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State, Pickett.
7. New York Giants, from Bears, 6-11:
Status: Two high first-round picks add solid foundational prospects.
Pick: Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Hamilton, Thibodeaux.
8. Atlanta Falcons, 7-10:
Status: They missed on dealing for Watson, then traded QB Matt Ryan to Indy. The next guy needs protection. No mystery here.
Pick: OT Evan Neal, Alabama.
Mock 1-2 Picks: ILB Devin Lloyd, Utah.
9. Seattle Seahawks, from Broncos, 7-10:
Status: Trading QB Russell Wilson to Broncos gives Seahawks draft picks to beef up roster. Should start with defense.
Pick: DT Jordan Davis, Georgia.
Mock 1-2 Picks: No first-round pick.
10. New York Jets, from Seahawks, 7-10:
Status: A second first-round defender wins out over WR with defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh.
Pick: Edge rusher Jermaine Johnson III, Florida State.
Mock Picks 1-2: WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas.
11. Washington Commanders, 7-10:
Status: Trade with Colts for QB Carson Wentz changed draft focus.
Pick: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State.
Mock 1-2 Picks: QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss.
12. Minnesota Vikings, 8-9:
Status: Vikings have drafted five defensive backs in the first two rounds in the last five drafts. Make it six for six.
Pick: CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Gardner.
13. Houston Texans, from Browns, 8-9:
Status: The Browns were focused on a WR. It's a good pick for the Texans, too.
Pick: WR Drake London, Southern Cal.
Mock 1-2 Picks: No picks.
14. Baltimore Ravens, 8-9:
Status: Adding strength up front is needed to play their style of football.
Pick: OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa. Practicing against his defensive teammates at Northern Iowa got him ready for the NFL.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Edge rusher George Karlaftis, Purdue, Penning.
15. Philadelphia Eagles, from Dolphins, 9-8:
Status: Receiver need remains. Position depth is strong.
Pick: WR Chris Olave, Ohio State.
Mock 1-2 Picks: London.
16. Philadelphia Eagles, from Colts, 9-8:
Status: Pro Day Injury knocks Michigan edge rusher David Ojabo out of this spot. Next defender up.
Pick: ILB Devin Lloyd, Utah.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Ojabo.
17. Los Angeles Chargers, 9-8:
Status: Chargers adjust in fallout from Ojabo injury.
Pick: DL Logan Hall, Houston.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Johnson, Davis.
18. New Orleans Saints, 9-8:
Status: Taking a receiver makes sense, even one coming off an injury.
Pick: WR Jameson Williams, Alabama.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Williams.
19. Philadelphia Eagles, 9-8:
Status: Not taking a QB with three first-round picks shows a commitment to Jalen Hurts.
Pick: LB Nakobe Dean, Georgia.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Dean.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-7-1:
Status: Signing veteran Mitchell Trubisky to replace Ben Roethlisberger lets them draft at another position.
Pick: OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State.
Mock 1-2 Picks: QB Sam Howell, North Carolina.
View photos of NFL prospect Jermaine Johnson II.
FILE - Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) is shown during an NCAA football game against Notre Dame on Sunday, Sept. 5, 2021 in Tallahassee, Fla. Jermaine Johnson II was voted The Associated Press All-ACC defensive player of the year in results released Monday, Dec. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough, File)
Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) is shown before a NCAA college football game against Clemson Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader (16) is pressured by Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) before being sacked in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)
Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader (16) takes off on a 55-yard touchdown run as Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) trails him in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in Tallahassee, Fla. Florida State won 33-30. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)
Jacksonville State quarterback Zerrick Cooper (6) is sacked by Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)
Clemson offensive lineman Walker Parks (64) blocks Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader (16) is hit as he throws a pass by Florida State defensive tackle Jarrett Jackson (48) and defensive end Jermaine Johnson II, right, in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in Tallahassee, Fla. Florida State won 33-30. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)
Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) moments before an NCAA football game against Notre Dame on Sunday, Sept. 5, 2021 in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) reaches for Jacksonville State quarterback Zerrick Cooper (6), but is unable to hang on to him in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, in Tallahassee, Fla. Jacksonville State won 20-17. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)
Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II (11) in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Syracuse Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in Tallahassee, Fla. Florida State won 33-30. (AP Photo/Phil Sears)
21. New England Patriots, 10-7:
Status: Secondary remains a primary need.
Pick: CB Trent McDuffie, Washington.
Mock 1-2 Picks: McDuffie.
22. Green Bay Packers, from Las Vegas Raiders, 10-7:
Status: Packers looking for a replacement after trading WR Davante Adams to the Raiders.
Pick: WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas.
Mock 1-2 Picks: No picks.
23. Arizona Cardinals, 11-6:
Status: Whatever the Cardinals do can be interpreted as keeping QB Kyler Murray happy.
Pick: WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State.
Mock 1-2 Picks: G Kenyon Green, Texas A&M.
24. Dallas Cowboys, 12-5:
Status: Offseason activity puts OL, WR and pass rusher in play.
Pick: Center Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Linderbaum.
25. Buffalo Bills, 11-6:
Status: Signing free-agent linebacker Von Miller strengthens the pass rush and Buffalo can use the draft to strengthen the secondary.
Pick: CB Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Booth.
26. Tennessee Titans, 12-5:
Status: Titans benefit from receiver draft depth.
Pick: WR George Pickens, Georgia.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Pickens.
View photos of NFL prospect Malik Willis.
Liberty University quarterback Malik Willis passed for 168 yards and ran for 133 yards against Western Kentucky University during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 19, 2020, in Bowling Green, KY. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis runs a drill during the NFL football scouting combine, Thursday, March 3, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis throws during the school's pro football day for NFL scouts and coaches, Tuesday, March 22, 2022, in Lynchburg, Va. (AP Photo/Kendall Warner)
FILE - Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (7) carries the ball against Troy during the first half of an NCAA football game in Troy, Ala., in this Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, file photo. The Flames, behind former Auburn quarterback Malik Willis, have beaten Campbell (48-7) and Old Dominion (45-17) at home and edged Troy (21-13) on the road. They play at Syracuse on Friday night, Sept. 24. (AP Photo/Butch Dill, File)
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (7) runs past the reach of Mississippi linebacker Cedric Johnson (33) on his way to a short yardage pickup during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. Mississippi won 27-14. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
American Team quarterback Malik Willis of Liberty runs through drills during practice for the Senior Bowl NCAA college football game Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (7) runs upfield while being chased by North Carolina State linebacker Isaiah Moore (1) during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 21, 2020, in Raleigh, N.C. (Ethan Hyman/The News & Observer via AP, Pool)
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (7) passes under pressure from Mississippi defensive back AJ Finley (21) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. Mississippi won 27-14. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (7) throws a pass against Campbell during an NCAA college football game in Lynchburg, Va. Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Kendall Warner)
American Team quarterback Malik Willis of Liberty runs through drills during practice for the Senior Bowl NCAA college football game Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 13-4:
Status: They won the draft and every other offseason activity when Tom Brady ended his 40-day retirement.
Pick: DT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Hall, Olave.
28. Packers, 13-4:
Status: Packers double down on receivers.
Pick: WR Christian Watson, North Dakota State.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Wyatt.
29. Kansas Chiefs, from 49ers, 10-7, through Dolphins:
Status: Chiefs get two shots to improve their defense. They start with the interior.
Pick: DL DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M.
Mock 1-2 Picks: No picks.
30. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-5:
Status: Chiefs get lucky to help defense with a value pick.
Pick: Edge rusher George Karlaftis, Purdue.
Mock 1-2 Picks: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida, Karlaftis.
31. Cincinnati Bengals, 10-7:
Status: No need to overthink this one. Get protection for QB Joe Burrow.
Pick: OT Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Raimann.
32. Detroit Lions, from Rams, 12-5:
Status: This is a good spot for the Lions on many levels.
One is to trade down with a team that wants the fifth-year option that goes with first-round picks.
Staying put, there is talent on the board at positions the Lions are seeking to upgrade -- wide receiver, edge rusher and safety among them.
Staying put, I have the Lions making picks for the future.
Pick: QB Malik Willis, Liberty. He's athletic with a strong arm, but needs development. Let him do it in Detroit.
Mock 1-2 Picks: Olave, Willis.
