It's crunch time for the Detroit Lions today at Ford Field as they need to win their remaining three contests, beginning with this afternoon's matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and get a little help along the way, to qualify for their third straight playoffs in the NFC.
Here are five things to look out for in today's matchup:
1. Red-zone defense
Taking advantage of scoring opportunities and turning red zone visits into seven points and not three is always a big factor in winning and losing every week in the NFL. This week it's particularly important looking at Sunday's matchup between the Lions and Steelers.
Pittsburgh ranks 27th in the NFL in total offense but they're 13th in scoring. Pittsburgh is one of the top red-zone offenses in the NFL, converting trips inside an opponent's 20-yard line into touchdowns 66.7 percent of the time, which is third best in the league. Detroit's offense is No. 2 at 67.9 percent.
Detroit's defense is allowing touchdowns in the red zone at a 61.7 clip, which ranks 23rd. That's an area where Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard's defense will have to buckle down and be better this afternoon. Pittsburgh's 42 red zone visits rank just 20th in the league, but when they get there, they take advantage with touchdowns.
2. Running back carries
Detroit is the No. 5 rushing team in the NFL this season averaging 131.1 yards per game, but it hasn't been as consistent as they probably want week in and week out. In five of Detroit's six losses, they've failed to rush for 100 yards. Only one time this season has Detroit ran for at least 100 yards and lost a game (Green Bay on Thanksgiving; 119). In eight wins, Detroit averages 170.5 yards on ground. In six losses, that number is 78.6.
Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most explosive talents in the NFL with the ability to score every time he touches the football, but Detroit's run game has been one of the best in the NFL the last three seasons because it's been a two-headed monster including veteran David Montgomery.
Montgomery got double-digit carries in seven of Detroit's first nine games but hasn't reached 10 rushing attempts in any of the team's last five contests, three of which have been losses. Lions head coach Dan Campbell said this week he's looking for more ways to get Montgomery involved.
"It is something I think about a lot, is how do we get them all involved?" Campbell said. "He's one of those, when they're all involved, we're just better. We're a better offense. Where do we get him touches? Where do we find them? So, I do. I think about him a lot."
3. Defending Metcalf
Detroit's defense has faced a couple of the top receivers in the league the last two weeks in Puka Nacua (9 rec., 181 yds) and CeeDee Lamb (6, 121). They will see another Sunday in Pittsburgh's DK Metcalf, who is a big, physical presence in the Steelers' pass game.
Campbell said this week he and Sheppard talked through some ideas on how they can help their cornerbacks out more this week and not leave them on an island as much as they have in previous weeks. It will be interesting to see what that looks like.
"We have principles and core things that we've done in the past, some things we're going to kind of inter-splice, kind of some technique changes, some things like that," Sheppard said this week. "But it's not just going to be a wholesale change, and we're going to show up Sunday and look like a completely different outfit. That's not the case. We're still going to be a tough, mean, nasty group, biting the football, finishing on the ball. It's just some things schematically where I feel like it's time to help these guys a little more than what I've done thus far as a coordinator."
Detroit's allowed the most passing yards in the NFL over the last month (1,315). That's an average of 328.8 per game with 2.25 passing touchdowns allowed per contest.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers average 242.4 passing yards per contest, which ranks 27th, but Lions fans know all too well what Rodgers brings to the table, even at 42 years old and especially at Ford Field, where he's had some iconic moments over the years.
4. Turnover battle
The Lions have done a really nice job taking care of the football all season. Quarterback Jared Goff has just five interceptions on the year and has the second-best interception percentage (1.1 percent) in the NFL.
But like we talked about earlier with Pittsburgh's offense, the gap between the Steelers' total defense (363.3), which ranks 28th, and their scoring defense (23.3) which is 18th, is significant and can partly be explained by the fact the Steelers are really good at generating takeaways. They rank third in the league with 24. 12 of those are forced fumbles and fumble recoveries, which leads the NFL. It's something Detroit ball carries will have to be mindful of today.
5. 13 personnel
The Rams were successful last week running 13 personnel (one running back and three tight ends) against the Lions, using it on 43 plays as they racked up 159 rushing yards (5.5 avg.) and 519 total yards. They had over a 70 percent success rate out of that personnel grouping last week.
The Steelers operate out of 13 personnel the second most reps behind the Rams this season.
"I think seeing it actually was probably one of the best things getting ready for this game, as we just came out of a full game with it," Campbell said this week. "I think we can help them a little bit here, I think seeing it last week is big, and I think we focus on those guys and their keys, man. Their eyes, where your eyes belong, where's your fit? That'll all help."
