The Detroit Lions have the odds in their favor that they are sitting in a good position as they try to upgrade the roster in the 2017 draft starting with the 21st pick in the first round.
A survey of the last 10 draft classes, starting in 2007, shows that the odds are better than 50-50 that the player drafted 21st overall will make the Pro Bowl at some point in his career. And the odds are even better that a player drafted in the next five picks – from 22 through 26 – will make the Pro Bowl.
Those odds are part of this week's Monday Countdown which analyses how teams fared with the 21st pick overall in the last 10 years, and how it compares to the next five picks each year – No. 22 through No. 26.
While the excitement and drama is most intense on the first pick, and the first quarterback taken, every pick counts – and every pick provides an opportunity to add quality talent.
In an eight-year span, from the 2007 draft class through 2014, six players drafted 21st overall were voted to a combined 11 Pro Bowls.
Also in those eight years, the next five picks – No. 22 through 26 – produced 17 players who made a combined 36 Pro Bowls. The individual leader in Pro Bowls is Packers linebacker Clay Matthews, drafted 26th overall in 2009 and voted to six Pro Bowls.
Here is a look at the last 10 drafts. It doesn't guarantee what will happen this year, or predict what the Lions will do.
As always, we'll get to that soon enough – and often enough.
2016 Pick 21: WR Will Fuller, Notre Dame, by Texans.
Next five: WR Josh Doctson, TCU by Redskins; WR Laquon Treadwell, Mississippi by Vikings; CB William Jackson III, Houston, by Bengals; CB Artie Burns, Miami (Fla.), by Steelers; QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis, by Broncos.
Pro Bowls: None.
Pick review: Despite injuries and some inconsistencies on his part – and QB Brock Osweiler's - Fuller was the most productive receiver drafted in the first round with 47 catches and two TDs. The top producing receivers, such as Michael Thomas of the Saints and Sterling Shepard of the Giants, were taken in the second round and later.
Bottom line: Not a bad pick, but Fuller has to prove his worth. He outperformed Doctson (two catches) and Treadwell (one). The Texans were not looking to add a cornerback to a talented secondary.
2015 Pick 21: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M, by Bengals.
Next five: OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky, by Steelers; DE Shane Ray, Missouri, by Broncos; OT D.J. Humphries, Florida, by Cardinals; OLB Shaq Thompson, Washington, by Panthers; WR Breshad Perriman, Central Florida, by Ravens.
Pro Bowls: None.
Pick review: Ogbuehi has been slow to develop, partly because of a rookie knee injury. His only 12 starts were at tackle in 2016. Dupree and Ray are productive pass rushers, and Perriman became a big-play threat in 2016. Humphries, like Ogbuehi, has been slow to develop.
Bottom line: Better choices at other positions.
2014 Pick 21: Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama, by Packers.
Next five: QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, by Browns; LB Dee Ford, Auburn, by Chiefs; CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State, by Bengals; CB Jason Verrett, TCU, by Chargers; LB Marcus Smith, Louisville, by Eagles.
Pro Bowls: Clinton-Dix 1, Verrett 1.
Pick review: Clinton-Dix's five interceptions in 2016 earned a Pro Bowl berth. Ford has been a solid pass rusher for the Chiefs. Verrett made the 2015 Pro Bowl but played only four games in 2016 because of a knee injury. Manziel flopped.
Bottom line: Clinton-Dix is a good, solid pick that follows the Packers' philosophy of building with home-grown talent.
2013 Pick 21: TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame, by Bengals.
Next five: CB Desmond Trufant, Washington, by Falcons; DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida, by Vikings; DE Bjoern Warner, Florida State, by Colts; CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State, by Vikings; DE Datone Jones, UCLA, by Packers.
Pro Bowls: Eifert 1, Trufant 1, Rhodes 1.
Pick review: Eifert was a Pro Bowler in 2015 with 13 TD catches, but injuries limited him to one game in 2014 and eight in 2016. The Bengals have missed on some DB's they've drafted, and Trufant and Rhodes would have fit them.
Bottom line: Except for injuries, no complaint taking Eifert.
2012 Pick 21: DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse, by Patriots.
Next five: QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, by Browns; OT Riley Reiff, Iowa, by Lions; G David DeCastro, Stanford, by Steelers; LB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama, by Patriots; DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois, by Texans.
Pro Bowls: Jones 1, DeCastro 2.
Pick review: Jones had 36 sacks and one Pro Bowl appearance in four years with the Patriots. He was traded to Arizona in 2016 and had another 11 sacks. Except for Weeden – another Browns QB flop – this was a quality group of picks.
Bottom line: The Patriots got four years of production from Jones, and a second-round draft pick as part compensation for trading him to the Cardinals. (Guard Jonathan Cooper, also acquired in the deal, was released.) And the Patriots did not miss a beat without Jones.
2011 Pick 21: DT Phil Taylor, Baylor, by Browns.
Next five: OT Antony Costonzo, Boston College, by Colts; G Danny Watkins, Baylor, by Eagles; DE Cameron Jordan, Cal, by Saints; OT James Carpenter, Alabama, by Seahawks; WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh, by Chiefs.
Pro Bowls: Jordan 2.
Pick review: Taylor had a promising rookie season, starting all 16 games and registering four sacks. He played one more full season (2013) and has been out of football since signing with Denver after the 2014 season. Injuries were a factor in shortening his career. He recently signed a futures contract with the Redskins.
Bottom line: With the focus on the defensive line, a better pick would have been Jordan – with 46.5 sacks and two Pro Bowls to his credit. Costonzo and Carpenter have been mostly solid.
2010 Pick 21: TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma, Bengals.
Next five: WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech, by Broncos; OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa, by Packers; WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State, by Cowboys; QB Tim Tebow, Florida, by Broncos; DT Dan Williams, Tennessee, by Cardinals.
Pro Bowls: Gresham 2, Thomas 3, Bryant 2.
Pick review: 335 catches, 27 TDs and two Pro Bowls validate Greshman being the right pick for the Bengals in a cluster of highly productive players.
Bottom line: Tebow was the only clinker in this group. The Bengals got five good years out of Gresham before he signed with Arizona as a free agent.
2009 Pick 21: C Alex Mack, Cal, by Browns.
Next five: WR Percy Harvin, Florida, by Vikings; OT Michael Oher, Mississippi, by Ravens; DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi, by Falcons; CB Vontae Davis, Illinois, by Dolphins; OLB Clay Matthews, Southern Cal, by Packers.
Pro Bowls: Mack 4, Harvin 1, Davis 2, Matthews 6.
Pick review: Mack gave the Browns seven good seasons and three Pro Bowls. Davis (22 interceptions) and Matthews (72.5 sacks) have been highly productive.
Bottom line: Mack was a quality pick and player – and he got his reward this year by signing with Atlanta, where he made his fourth Pro Bowl on a playoff team.
2008 Pick 21: OT Sam Baker, Southern Cal, by Falcons.
Next five: RB Felix Jones, Arkansas, by Cowboys; RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois, by Steelers; RB Chris Johnson, Eastern Carolina, by Titans; CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida, by Cowboys; OT Duane Brown, Virginia Tech, by Texans.
Pro Bowls: Johnson 3, Jenkins 1, Brown 3.
Pick review: Baker was a highly decorated collegian in the lineage of Southern linemen. Severe knee injuries shortened his career.
Bottom line: It's a clear-cut choice. The Falcons would have been better off drafting Brown five picks later.
2007 Pick 21: S Reggie Nelson, Florida, by Jaguars.
Next five: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame, by Browns; WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU, by Chiefs; S Brandon Meriweather, Miami (Fla.), by Patriots; LB Jon Beason, Miami (Fla.), by Panthers; DE Anthony Spencer, Purdue, by Cowboys.
Pro Bowls: Nelson 2, Bowe 1, Meriweather 2, Beason 3, Spencer 1.
Pick review: Nelson was a good player whose best seasons came after being traded to the Bengals in 2010. He's missed only six games in his career and made the Pro Bowl with the Bengals in 2015 and Raiders in 2016.
Bottom line: There were 17 players drafted in the first round in 2007 who made at least one Pro Bowl. The Jaguars made a good pick but didn't hold onto him long enough to get full value.
