NEWS

Fantasy Football Analysis: Who to start, who to sit - Week 10

Posted Nov 8, 2012

Tim Twentyman offers his advice to fantasy football owners. Among some of the top picks this week: start Colts' RB Vick Ballard, sit Texans' QB Matt Schaub.

LIONS' FIVE

Matthew Stafford, QB, Start: The Lions are starting to run the football better and that means Stafford is going to get more opportunities for some big plays. He’s averaged more than 300 yards passing his last three games against the Vikings with five touchdowns and no picks.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Start: This is what Johnson told Detroitlions.com Wednesday: “I’m feeling alright, not as bad as last week.” That’s good enough for me after last week’s 129-yard performance.

Mikel Leshoure, RB, Start: Leshoure is coming off his best fantasy performance of the year (25 points) against the Jaguars and is facing a Vikings' defense that’s given up an average of 165.8 yards per game on the ground to it’s last four opponents.

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Start: In his last three games against the Vikings, Pettigrew has 24 catches, 236 yards and one touchdown. I’ll play the numbers.

Ryan Broyles, WR, Start: This marks the first time all year I’ve gone with five starts for the Lions. Broyles has 25 points over his last three games and has become a clutch third-down option for Stafford. Not a bad choice for a third receiver or flex option this week.

START

Vick Ballard, RB, Colts: Donald Brown’s return to the lineup last week didn’t effect Ballard as he still got the bulk of the carries. Word out of Indy is that Brown might not play tonight, which means it’s the Ballard show against a very poor Jaguars run defense that’s allowing the third-most points to running backs.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: Roethlisberger has rewarded those owners who waited a couple rounds to snag a quarterback with a fine season thus far. He should reward them again this week against a Chiefs' defense that’s given up 17 touchdown passes and the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks who are averaging 22 points the last three weeks.

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Turner has been frustrating at times this season, but has a very good matchup this week against the Saints and the league’s worst defense. It’s never a bad idea to start a guy as a No. 2 back or flex against the team that’s given up the second-most fantasy points to running backs.

Heath Miller, TE, Steelers: If you’re lucky enough to have Roethlisberger and Miller, you could be in store for some double-dip action this week. Miller has six touchdowns on the season and he and Roethlisberger have connected twice in the last three weeks.

Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots: It’s hit or miss from week-to-week how the Patriots attack opponents, but it’s a pretty good bet Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has noticed that the Bills have surrendered 12 rushing touchdowns and the most fantasy points on average (24.8) to opposing running backs.

SIT

Matt Schaub, QB, Titans: It’s tough to sit a player who has back-to-back 20 -point fantasy performances, but the Bears are No. 1 against opposing quarterbacks with only Tony Romo (19) and Matthew Stafford (16) reaching more than 15 points on them. This game is in Chicago.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Bowe has just three touchdowns on the season and has reached double-digit points just twice. He faces a Steelers team on the road Monday night that ranks No. 1 in the NFL against the pass (174 yds per game).

Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: You’re likely to be only starting Bradford because of the bye or injury, but you might what to rethink that plan if that’s the case. The 49ers have allowed only six passing touchdowns all year and are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (12.3 average).

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: The law firm found the end zone last week against the Broncos for the first time since Week 3. Yup, you read that right. He’s been a bit of a disappointment for owners and has a tough matchup this week against a Giants' defense that’s allowed just four rushing touchdowns all season, although two have come the last two weeks.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings: The Lions haven’t had great success shutting down opposing tight ends this season (ranking 24th), but Rudolph has to have a quarterback who can get him the ball to score fantasy points. Rudolph has only two games of 10 or more fantasy points this season

SLEEPERS

Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders: Reece is likely to see the bulk of the carries Sunday at Tampa Bay with Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson not expected to play. Not a bad gamble in a pinch.

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers: How much has Philip Rivers missed receiver Vincent Jackson this season? Floyd was supposed to fill the void left by Jackson’s departure, but has only managed more than 10 points once this season. He does have a good matchup this week against a Bucs defense allowing the third-most points to receivers.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahahwks: Wilson is averaging 22 fantasy points in four home games this season.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: His targets have increased in each of the last three weeks and he’s coming off a 16-point performance last week against a good Dolphins defense. It’s tough to start a sleeper on Thursday night, but Hilton could be a nice flex option this week if you really need one.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Chargers: He has 20 receptions and 190 receiving yards over his last four games and is owned by less than 10 percent in most leagues. Might not be a bad flex option this week.

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